Rozmowe o cenach ropy proponuje oprzec o jakies realne dane, biezace newsy. Oto moj wklad.
1.
May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a record above $135 a barrel in New York on concern that supplies are inadequate after U.S. stockpiles unexpectedly dropped last week.
U.S. crude inventories fell 5.32 million barrels to 320.4 million barrels last week, the biggest drop in four months, the Energy Department said yesterday. Gasoline supplies plunged by 755,000 barrels when analysts expected an increase.
``The price was roaring before the inventory report and was going up regardless, but that gave it the extra push,'' said Rowan Menzies, head of research at Commodity Warrants Australia Ltd. in Sydney. ``I'm beginning to think that this is a serious macro event, with oil at these levels, and it's going to have some serious consequences.''
2.
World Oil Demand Flat, Prices Boom…
The chief market strategist for one of the world's leading oil industry banks, David Kelly, of J.P. Morgan Funds, recently admitted something telling to the Washington Post, One of the things I think is very important to realize is that the growth in the world oil consumption is not that strong."
One of the stories used to support the oil futures speculators is the allegation that China 's oil import thirst is exploding out of control, driving shortages in the supply-demand equilibrium. The facts do not support the China demand thesis however.
The US Government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its most recent monthly Short Term Energy Outlook report, concluded that US oil demand is expected to decline by 190,000 b/d in 2008. That is mainly owing to the deepening economic recession. Chinese consumption, the EIA says, far from exploding, is expected to rise this year by only 400,000 barrels a day. That is hardly the "surging oil demand" blamed on China in the media. Last year China imported 3.2 million barrels per day, and its estimated usage was around 7 million b/d total. The US , by contrast, consumes around 20.7 million b/d.
That means the key oil consuming nation, the USA , is experiencing a significant drop in demand. China, which consumes only a third of the oil the US does, will see a minor rise in import demand compared with the total daily world oil output of some 84 million barrels, less than half of a percent of the total demand.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has its 2008 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.2 mm bpd, as slowing economic growth in the industrialised world is offset by slightly growing consumption in developing nations. OPEC predicts global oil demand in 2008 will average 87 million bpd -- largely unchanged from its previous estimate. Demand from China , the Middle East , India , and Latin America -- is forecast to be stronger but the EU and North American demand will be lower.
So the world's largest oil consumer faces a sharp decline in consumption, a decline that will worsen as the housing and related economic effects of the US securitization crisis in finance de-leverages. The price in normal open or transparent markets would presumably be falling not rising. No supply crisis justifies the way the world's oil is being priced today.
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